The war in Ukraine is far from ending, but there are already many lessons to be learned at the local, global and military levels – some of them are extremely relevant to Israel.
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At the local level, the world is awed by the determined resistance shown by Ukraine. The patriotism, courage, and die-hard spirit displayed by Ukrainians are indeed admirable, but it seems there has been somewhat of an exaggeration as to their influence on the battlefield. Western intelligence sources, in particular the Americans, and the Ukrainians themselves, attempted to paint a picture that the battlefield was far more balanced than it was in reality. Rather than this being based on established intelligence, it was an unsuccessful attempt at sophisticated cognitive warfare to strengthen Ukrainian resistance and weaken Russian resolve.
On the ground, the results are unequivocal. The Russian army is taking more and more territory and capturing towns throughout Ukraine as it seeks to establish its clear goal – full control by Moscow. Anyone that thinks Putin will stray from this course or just give up because of Western criticism and sanctions has long been proved wrong. The opposite is true: As time passes, Russia is showing more resolve and becoming more aggressive in its actions, including strikes on infrastructure and buildings and strikes on civilian targets, which Moscow sought to avoid at the start of the campaign.
The Ukrainians, despite all the world's sympathy, cannot stand up to the Russian military machine. They are inferior from every military parameter, and without Western backing are destined to a harsh defeat. It may be taking longer than Russia had initially anticipated, but that won't change the bottom line. One can reasonably assume that over the next few days grave images will emerge from Ukraine's towns and cities and that we will see a dramatic rise in the number of dead, wounded, and refugees.
Fighting the last millennium's battles
At the global level, the situation is just as grim. The civilized world has been caught with its pants down. It had months to prepare for the Russian invasion, to impose sanctions, to threaten a response. But it just looked on at events with a combination of naivety and impotence. It was only after the invasion began that it took action. But it was too late from the Ukrainian perspective and too little for it to have any real influence on Moscow.
NATO, on the other hand, a body that appeared to have lost its way over the past two decades, was energized by events. Not that fighting with Ukraine was ever on the agenda – that would have justified Russian claims that the operation in Ukraine was necessary to prevent NATO's march eastward – but the archaic organization has received a rare opportunity to reshape itself and to restore its deterrence. If that happens then once the sanctions have had time to create a significant effect the pendulum will swing back from the distinct advantage held today by the negative forces in the world, currently led by Russia.
Such a change is critical not only for the United States but also for its allies around the world – and for all countries that desire a free and enlightened world. For that to happen, Russia must bleed, not militarily, but economically. As usual, those that pay the price will be Russia's ordinary citizens, who already live in poverty. Responsibility for this lies squarely with Putin and his cronies, who have left the West with no choice.
Israel has stammered in its response. Its desire for good relations with both Russia and Ukraine is understandable, but it needs to be more attentive to voices coming out of Washington. The decision not to acquiesce to the American request to back the condemnation of Russia at the United Nations Security Council led to not insignificant criticism of Israel in the US.
Jerusalem needs to find a way to rectify this damage. Not only because the United States is Israel's greatest friend and its most reliable backer – diplomatically, militarily, economically, and intelligence–wise – but because the chances are that at some point in the near future we will need the administration. So we need to ensure that it will be attentive and empathetic when that happens.
Israel is showing a lot of respect for Russia. This is understandable, but it should not be too cautious. With all due respect to Syria, Russia has plenty of reasons to cooperate with Israel. The strikes attributed to the Israeli Air Force enable Russia to restrain Iranian activities in Syria, which often compete with Moscow for hegemony in the country. Most importantly, the IAF strikes don't threaten Russia itself.
Were Russia, in a moment of madness, to use its advanced air defense systems (S-300 and S-400) against Israel it would discover that the IAF is capable of taking them out, and that would be a grave blow to its deterrence and global sales of Russian military hardware.
In any event, Russia's attention at the moment is not focused on Syria. In Ukraine, the Russian army is displaying very mediocre abilities, but at the same time, they are showing extreme cruelty and resolve on the way to completing their mission – especially in the way they are employing the outdated weaponry in their arsenal. Israeli security sources following the battles say that it sometimes seems as if Russia is fighting in the previous millennium. Moscow's critical mass will prevail in the end, but it appears that the Russian Bear is less threatening than we thought.
There is another lesson that Israel should learn from the war in Ukraine. While it may be a cliche, Israel can rely only on itself and its military strength. But this costs money and the bon ton, publicly and politically, is to pursue the security establishment and the IDF as if they were a gang of robbers out to steal public funds. We have seen this come to play in recent weeks in the battle over military pensions. The High Court of Justice forced the IDF to regulate the issue through legislation, but the issue is one of principle: How do we keep the best people in service, and thus ensure that the army remains in the best hands in the future.
There are too many charlatans making their voices heard on the issue. The thought that only combatants should get enlarged pensions and the rest not is nonsense and completely illogical. Combatants should of course get the most, but without technology and intelligence, for example, Israel will not have a qualitative edge, and without NCOs, the army will not function In a world where a mechanic NCO working at a regional division in the north can cross the road to a civilian garage, work five days a week from 7 to 5 instead of 24/7, and get double the pay, no sane person will stay in uniform to get minuscule pension decades from now. If we don't take care of the mechanic now, we will get stalled convoys and broken down vehicles on the route to the next war.
That doesn't mean that the army doesn't have excess fat that needs trimming. On the contrary: The IDF needs to undertake much deeper reforms than it has, including efficiency measures in manpower, and rethinking length of service. But still, the picture is that the IDF must be able to project strength and make sure that it is not just empty posturing.
Fortunately for the IDF, the triumvirate currently managing Israel's defense economics – Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, Defense Minister Benny Gantz, and Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman – are all previous defense ministers and understand the situation well. It is true that many other sectors in Israel require significant investment (health and education post-COVID, welfare, and others) but in a world gone mad, and with Iran growing stronger, Israel has no insurance policy other than the IDF. This insurance policy needs to be embraced, not kicked. That however is not the situation at the moment; the doubters need to snap out of it quickly. Most of them – like any sane person – likely support Ukraine right now. The conclusions should be clear.
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