There is an inherent gap between the results of political polls and the election itself. While polls use phone calls or the internet to ask respondents how they plan to vote, on Election Day the public needs to show up at the polling places and physically put a ballot into an envelope.
According to an Israel Hayom-i24NEWS poll conducted by the Maagar Mochot research institute under Professor Yitzhak Katz indicates that the party with largest percentage of supporters who say they will definitely be voting on April 9 is Yisrael Beytenu, under former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman – with 79% of supporters committed to casting ballots in the election.
Slightly over three-quarters (77%) of Kulanu supporters said they would definitely be voting. About 69% of both Likud and Blue and White supporters said they definitely planned to vote, as did 68% of Labor supporters.
While some parties have a fairly die-hard core of voters, only 57% of all respondents said they were certain they would be voting. Another 26% said they were "highly likely" to vote; 3% said the chance they would vote was "middling"; and 14% said there was little chance they would be voting.
When asked how certain they were that they would actually vote for their preferred parties, 37% said they were completely sure. Another 34% said there was a 76% to 99% chance they would vote for their preferred parties; 11% said they were not completely sure they would vote for their preferred parties, and 18% said they were not sure at all they would vote for their preferred parties.
The poll also looked at potential voters who were deliberating between two parties: 8% of potential voters said they were vacillating between Labor and Blue and White; 3.4% were deliberating between the Likud and Blue and White; 2.8% said they were undecided between the Likud and the New Right; another 2.8% were trying to decide between Kulanu and Blue and White; and surprisingly, 2.8% said they were vacillating between Blue and White and the Zehut party of far-right activist Moshe Feiglin.
The poll was conducted March 20-21 among a statistical sample of 613 respondents out of a total 2,943 contacted by pollsters that is representative of the adult population in Israel. The poll has a margin of error of 4%.
