The deputy head of the Israeli Civil Administration, Col. Uri Mendes, sparked controversy at a meeting of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday when he asserted that the number of Jews and Arabs living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River is now at or near parity.
Mendes said a Palestinian Authority census puts the number of Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria at 3 million.
However, "we estimate the actual [Palestinian] population in Judea and Samaria at between 2.5 million and 2.7 million, due to death registries and emigration. For example, a Palestinian who was born in Brazil and lived there his entire life is eligible to register with the Palestinian Population Registry and the Palestinians issue him a passport," he said.
Committee chairman MK Avi Dichter, a former director of the Shin Bet security agency, said, "Taking the Gaza Strip's 2 million Palestinians into account, that means there is now a total of about 5 million Palestinians living between the sea and the Jordan River, and that doesn't include the Arabs in east Jerusalem."
Dichter said the committee would "continue to monitor the demographic issue. We ask that the Defense Ministry provide a comprehensive account of the demographic data it possesses. I don't remember even the Palestinians presenting such high numbers. This data is cause for concern if it is accurate, and also if it isn't accurate."
Together with the 1.84 million Arabs living in Israel, the total number of Arabs in Israel and the territories comes to around 6.5 million – a similar figure to the number of Jews living in the area, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.
Mendes corroborated the figures, saying, "Aside from a small group of Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria who also have Israeli residency due to family reunification [laws], the figures do not include those with permanent residency status in Jerusalem, because the Palestinians do not enter them into their logs as this would jeopardize their residency status in Israel."
MK Motti Yogev (Habayit Hayehudi) pointed an accusatory finger at the Israeli authorities.
"For 15 years now, the Civil Administration has neglected its responsibilities by failing to conduct an independent population census, even in Area C [the Israeli-controlled part of Judea and Samaria]. Instead, it has relied only on Palestinian figures, and this is the result," he said.
"The experts are deeply divided over the data; some of them believe that the number of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria is only 2.5 million."
Settler spokesman Yigal Dilmoni disputed the population figures, citing one study that puts the number of Palestinians in Judea and Samaria at 1.8 million.
"The slanted publication about Arab demography in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley relies on figures from the Palestinian statistics bureau that are not true or accurate," he said. "They [The Palestinians] have an interest in inflating the numbers."
Yesh Atid MK and committee member Ofer Shelah said that regardless of the exact numbers, it is clear that the Jewish majority between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea is "precarious."
"The argument over the demographic figures presented is pointless," he said.
"We don't need the Palestinian census bureau. Read the warnings by any number of Israeli experts – they all agree that there is a slim Jewish majority today between the sea and the Jordan River, and even if we disregard the 2 million Gazans, we still get numbers that mean just one thing: If we don't separate from the Palestinians, Israel will not continue to be Jewish if we annex Judea and Samaria, and it won't be democratic if we continue to rule over Palestinians without rights. No demographic argument will compensate for the facts: Either we separate or the Zionist dream is in real danger."
Joint Arab List MK Ahmad Tibi described the figures as accurate and "well known to us for a long time."
Tibi said that unless an independent Palestinian state is established, Israel will be headed for a "one-state solution" with only two possible outcomes: "apartheid or an Arab-Palestinian prime minister."
Sergio DellaPergola, a demographer and professor emeritus at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, said one state taking in two nations is not viable.
"The answer is separation, the answer is manifestly separation," he said. "Two countries for two people, which of course has to be negotiated."
Underlying political dynamics are more important than exact population percentages, he said.
