Overnight efforts to resolve the coalition crisis failed Sunday, fueling speculations that early elections may soon be unavoidable.
The crisis was sparked by Ashkenazi ultra-Orthodox party United Torah Judaism's threat to stall the vote on the state budget unless its amendment to Israel's Defense Service Law is passed. The amendment aims to legally anchor exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students.
The issue of mandatory military service for the ultra-Orthodox sector has dogged Israeli politics for years. Many in the ultra-Orthodox community believe military service should be secondary to Torah study. However, secular Israelis oppose being expected to shoulder the burden without any contribution by a substantial sector of the population.
Shas, the Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party, has voiced support for the controversial legislation.
The new legislation stipulates that as long as enough religious soldiers enlist to meet quotas set annually by the government, all other Torah scholars will not be drafted. Last year, the quota was 3,200 ultra-Orthodox recruits, but in fact only 2,850 actually reported for duty.
It also stipulates that the government enact measures, ranging from sanctions to incentives, to help the ultra-Orthodox population meet the quotas – including lowering the threshold number. These measures would have to be approved by the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, but if it declined to approve them, the Knesset plenum would have an opportunity to override the committee.
Kulanu party leader and Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon said that unless the Knesset votes on the 2019 state budget on March 15 as planned, his party will exit the coalition, a move that would trigger a general election.
Yisrael Beytenu leader Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman also opposes the amendment and said his party would vote against it.
United Torah Judaism chairman Yakov Litzman said Sunday, "If they [Kahlon and Lieberman] want to topple the government, let them. We're not afraid of elections."
Last week, Shas' and United Torah Judaism's leaders met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and agreed to establish a task force to resolve the issue. The team comprises Tourism Minister Yariv Levin, Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Zeev Elkin, delegates from the haredi parties and an official from the Attorney General's Office.
However, on Sunday evening, Netanyahu, who is on a state visit to the United States, instructed Elkin and Levin to halt the task force's efforts. Likud party insiders told Israel Hayom that Netanyahu does not believe that the controversial bill will pass and wants to prevent an undesirable outcome in which Likud would be lambasted both for capitulating to the haredi parties and for failing to prevent early elections.
Kahlon on Sunday reiterated his objection to the amendment, saying that regardless of the dispute over the budget, his party would not vote on a bill to which Lieberman objects.
Liberman has tasked a special team with drafting a new amendment to the conscription law, but sources in both haredi parties said that neither Shas nor United Torah Judaism trust Lieberman on the matter and prefer to drafting the legislation themselves. This would "ensure it is more flexible and compliant with the haredi public's needs," one source said.
The previous legislation passed to ensure draft deferment for Torah students was struck down by the High Court of Justice as being in violation of the law, forcing the haredi parties to reformulate it.
Officials with Netanyahu's entourage in Washington said the prime minister was maintaining constant contact with the coalition partners over the crisis and was making every effort to resolve the situation.
"The problem is that Kahlon and Lieberman have created an impossible equation that prevents a solution," one official said. "Netanyahu will keep dealing with this issue even during his trip to the U.S., and he hopes early elections can be avoided."
Speaking with reporters on Saturday, before taking off for the U.S., Netanyahu said, "There is no reason for the coalition to collapse or for us to call early elections, and with some good will it won't happen. I have this good will and I hope our partners do, too. There is no reason to declare early elections. This government can live out its term."
Meanwhile, Litzman stressed that he has not received any new offer from Netanyahu or anyone else in Likud.
"I have no grievance against Finance Minister Kahlon. It is Likud that is obligated to pass the new bill. Without a conscription bill, the government has no right to exist. I don't want elections, I want to pass this bill, and we will do everything to make that happen," Litzman said.
"All we're getting from Likud is silence. They haven't made us any offer. Everyone knows that the issue of conscription is a core issue for the haredi public. The Council of Torah Sages deliberated for three hours and told us, in no uncertain terms, there will be no budget bill without a conscription bill.
"We have clear instructions from the Council of Torah Sages, and we will follow them. I can't support the budget until the conscription law is passed. The High Court of Justice ruled that this amendment must be passed by September, while we have until next February to pass the budget bill. There's plenty of time," Litzman said.
Netanyahu and Kahlon sought to pass the 2019 budget earlier than originally scheduled to ensure the coalition's stability, but coalition sources said that if the crisis is not resolved by Tuesday, the government will be unable to present the budget for its planned Knesset reading.
According to Litzman, "Netanyahu asked us directly if the heads of the haredi parties wanted early elections. We said no. He said he doesn't want elections now either, but I made it clear to him that United Torah Judaism won't budge, because we follow the ruling of the Council of Torah Sages. If he doesn't postpone the vote on the budget, then we're heading in one of two directions: We either vote against the budget, or we call for elections."
United Torah Judaism sources said that while the coalition partners said they would negotiate a solution to the draft bill by the time the current conscription exemptions afforded to yeshiva students expire in September, the Council of Torah Sages fears that if they allow the state budget to pass before the issue is resolved, none of the coalition partners would be motivated to support the controversial bill.
Meanwhile, Kahlon's associates said he would not allow for any change in the scheduled vote on the state budget, as many "important economic initiatives" depend on the March vote.
President Reuven Rivlin also commented Sunday on the possibility of early elections over the bill, saying any solution must be reached by negotiations only.
"The intensifying conversation about calling early elections over the conscription bill touches on a very sensitive issue for Israeli society," he said.
"This is a sensitive issue for those who serve in the military, for the haredi public, and for Torah scholars.
"This is not the first government whose stability has been challenged by this volatile issue. But the issue of conscription cannot be resolved with coercion, only with dialogue and agreement. Down the line, if we are unable to resolve this discord with dialogue, with an earnest attempt to find a responsible, respectful and realistic compromise, this issue will continue to destabilize Israeli politics, and worse, it will intensify tensions between the sectors.
"We must find additional mechanisms to foster dialogue between us so that it is clear that this is not a dispute between those who hate the IDF and those who hate the Torah, but between Israelis who all appreciate the IDF and respect the Torah and its scholars," Rivlin said.
